This is my simple analysis of the current political situation in America. I will start by looking at the voter and the voters relationship with the news media.
Sixty percent of elligable voters cannot be bothered to vote. I always see in the news after a national election that about forty percent voted.
Of the forty percent who vote eighteen percent vote democrat and eighteen percent vote republican. In addition, I have observed that die-hard support for each party is basically even.
The ones that make the difference are the four percent that don't hold a political allegiance. These voters are ussually called "swing voters".
In my opinion, it is the news media's constant reporting on contradiction between what a politician says and what he or she does that news media uses to manipulate the hearts and minds of these swing voters. Even though it appeares that voters vote according to political idealogies, swing voters consider the bad news reports highly when making a decision.
Unfortunately, for the liberal-agenda-driven news media they do not control the flow of information anymore. BLOGS are not the only revolution. People have lost respect for liberal newspapers and liberal television because they can see the overt effort of the liberal news to help democrats get elected. Therefore, people are turning to other sources of information. Such as other conservative talk radio, conservative news organizations, and writing and reading BLOGs. I personally do not quote BLOGs that are not written by people with credentials.
Okay, now to another one of I my central points. I believe that if the election was held today McCain would win with the support of the swing voters. Out of the three candidates, he has the most favorable public image. Obama and Hillary have been caught up in some serious contradictions between their rhetoric and their behavior.
Obama who is a candidate of change has to explain his participation in a church for 20 years in which a church minister-and leader-holds racist views. Hillary's new lie is about dodging sniper fire on a visit to the Kosovo-Bosnia region. It turns out she was dancing the Lindy Hustle as she waltzed down the walkway of th airport.
McCain to date has not had his tail stepped on by controversy. His age is not an issue because people are living longer and longer in our time. Besides death has no age. It can visit anyone regardless of how long they have been on planet Earth. In addition, McCain can always pick a politically attractive forty-something as his Vice President, such as Angelina Jolie. (man what a babe)
I believe Obama is about to meet his political death. Hillary has lies. Therefore, she has a bad public image. Obama, however, is suppose to represent something other then the typical politician who lies. Therefore, his lies count more.
I do not see how the so called Super-delegates would jeapordize their individual political niche to support someone facing charges of racism. There is nothing new about racism and hate. I think we all have read that book.
Therefore, Hillary wins the democrat nomination by default. How can "super delegates" explain supporting a person with credible charges of "hatred" and "racism"? My thought of Obama today was "he was raised by his white mother and grandmother, but he wants to be seen as the 'black' candidate". Why wasn't his white upbringing something he appreciates and values? In addition, why doesn't he respect what his white family members gave him through out his life?
Hence, in my opinion Obama is more undesireable then Hillary. To me this means that the 2008 presidential election will be between McCain and Clinton. McCain will win this compeition.
The swing voters will not support Clinton because of her negative public image. They will not support Obama for the same reason. Neither democrat has enough delegates to deserve the nomination. The "super delegates" will apply the "CYA" principal and support Clinton who does not have harsh charge against her such as "racism" and "hatred" because supporting Obama would mean they (the super delegates) are just as guilty of "hatred" and "racism" as Obama is today.
Therefore, I predict that the next president of the United States will be McCain. I also predict he will govern such as Mr. Clinton did during his tenure. McCain will support policies based on these policies popularity in polls. If I remeber correctly Mr. Clinton got elected by being a democrat who appeared like a conservative.
Moreover, before the criticism starts on my analysis. Conervatives who say they will not vote in support of McCain will quickly realize they are about to send a democrat in to the presidency in these "Terrorist Challenging" times. The repulsion will be of such great magnitude that there will be many vomiting outside voting centers after having cast a vote of desperation for McCain.
Furthermore, political spin is something the American is good at spotting. No matter how much Obama tries to explain his church and the church's ministers he has failed at answering the charges of "racism" and "hatred", which are worst then anything Hillary has done.